Twins at Blue Jays
Last play · Carlos Correa pops out to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in foul territory.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
MIN 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 8 – 6 TOR
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -145
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Alex Kirilloff. Cavan Biggio scores. Davis Schneider scores. Daulton Varsho to 3rd. (inning 6) — +31% Blue Jays
7Davis Schneider out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Alex Kirilloff. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.8–10
7Ernie Clement singles on a line drive to center fielder Willi Castro. Danny Jansen scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd. George Springer to 2nd.8–9
6Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Alex Kirilloff. Cavan Biggio scores. Davis Schneider scores. Daulton Varsho to 3rd.8–8
5Danny Jansen homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.8–6
5Davis Schneider homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.8–4
4Ryan Jeffers homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.8–3
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Willi Castro. Daulton Varsho scores.7–3
3Daulton Varsho doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Max Kepler. Davis Schneider scores.7–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








