Twins at Blue Jays
Last play · Ernie Clement lines out, pitcher Griffin Jax to first baseman Carlos Santana.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
MIN 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 1 TOR
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Santana homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — -22% Twins
9Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a ground ball to right fielder Max Kepler. Bo Bichette scores. Cavan Biggio to 3rd.3–2
9Max Kepler singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cavan Biggio. Carlos Correa scores.3–1
5Carlos Santana homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
3Isiah Kiner-Falefa homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Jose Miranda singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cavan Biggio. Carlos Correa scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








