Pirates at Blue Jays
Last play · Ji Hwan Bae strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
PIT 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 4 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -175
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daniel Vogelbach doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ji Hwan Bae. Davis Schneider scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. (inning 5) — +30% Blue Jays
9Rowdy Tellez singles on a line drive to left fielder Daulton Varsho. Oneil Cruz scores.4–5
6Davis Schneider doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Daulton Varsho scores.3–5
5Daniel Vogelbach doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ji Hwan Bae. Davis Schneider scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.3–4
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Connor Joe. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Davis Schneider to 3rd.3–2
5Rowdy Tellez doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Oneil Cruz scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.3–1
3Davis Schneider strikes out swinging.1–1
3Rowdy Tellez singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder George Springer. Connor Joe scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
