Orioles at Blue Jays
Last play · Kyle Stowers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BAL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 4 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Ernie Clement scores. Danny Jansen scores. (inning 3) — +27% Blue Jays
9Ryan O'Hearn homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Austin Hays scores.5–6
8Adley Rutschman homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Jordan Westburg scores.3–6
6Ernie Clement singles on a line drive to left fielder Austin Hays. Justin Turner scores. Daulton Varsho scores.1–6
6Adley Rutschman homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.1–4
4Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a fly ball to right fielder Anthony Santander. Daulton Varsho scores.0–4
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Ernie Clement scores. Danny Jansen scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














