Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · Daulton Varsho flies out to left fielder Jarren Duran.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
BOS 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 2 TOR
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -140
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Turner grounds into a double play, shortstop David Hamilton to second baseman Enmanuel Valdez to first baseman Dominic Smith. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Kevin Kiermaier to 3rd. Spencer Horwitz out at 2nd. Justin Turner out at 1st. (inning 4) — +16% Blue Jays
8David Hamilton reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Dominic Smith scores. David Hamilton to 2nd. Jarren Duran out at home, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to third baseman Addison Barger to catcher Danny Jansen to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to third baseman Addison Barger.7–3
8Dominic Smith doubles (6) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Enmanuel Valdez scores. Reese McGuire to 3rd.6–3
7George Springer strikes out swinging.5–3
6Jarren Duran singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Enmanuel Valdez scores. Romy Gonzalez to 2nd.5–2
6Romy Gonzalez singles on a ground ball to second baseman Spencer Horwitz. Masataka Yoshida scores. Enmanuel Valdez to 2nd.4–2
5Jarren Duran homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
4Justin Turner grounds into a double play, shortstop David Hamilton to second baseman Enmanuel Valdez to first baseman Dominic Smith. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Kevin Kiermaier to 3rd. Spencer Horwitz out at 2nd. Justin Turner out at 1st.2–2
4Kevin Kiermaier singles on a ground ball to center fielder Romy Gonzalez. Addison Barger scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














