Astros at Blue Jays
Last play · Daulton Varsho lines out to left fielder Mauricio Dubón.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
HOU 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — -22% Astros
8Jake Meyers grounds into a force out, third baseman Ernie Clement to second baseman Spencer Horwitz. Yordan Alvarez scores. Yainer Diaz out at 2nd. Jake Meyers to 1st.9–2
8Yainer Diaz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Alex Bregman scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd.8–2
8Yordan Alvarez doubles (21) on a line drive to right fielder Addison Barger. Jon Singleton scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.7–2
7Jeremy Peña hit by pitch. Yordan Alvarez scores. Yainer Diaz to 3rd. Jake Meyers to 2nd.6–2
7Yainer Diaz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Addison Barger. Jon Singleton scores. Jose Altuve scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd.5–2
7Jose Altuve singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Addison Barger, deflected by first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Chas McCormick scores. Jon Singleton to 3rd.3–2
6Daulton Varsho singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Chas McCormick. Bo Bichette scores. Daulton Varsho out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Chas McCormick to catcher Yainer Diaz to second baseman Jose Altuve.2–2
6Yordan Alvarez homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














