Astros at Blue Jays
Last play · Addison Barger pops out to third baseman Alex Bregman in foul territory.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
HOU 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 0 TOR
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremy Peña homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — -16% Astros
9Ernie Clement homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
9Yordan Alvarez homers (17) on a fly ball to center field. Alex Bregman scores.3–0
5Jeremy Peña homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














