Astros at Blue Jays
Last play · Ernie Clement lines out sharply to center fielder Jake Meyers.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
HOU 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 4 – 3 TOR
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Horwitz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Mauricio Dubón. George Springer scores. Danny Jansen scores. Davis Schneider to 3rd. (inning 1) — +19% Blue Jays
7Jeremy Peña homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.5–3
5Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Jeremy Peña scores. Mauricio Dubón to 2nd.4–3
1Alejandro Kirk doubles (7) on a ground ball to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Davis Schneider scores. Spencer Horwitz to 3rd.3–3
1Spencer Horwitz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Mauricio Dubón. George Springer scores. Danny Jansen scores. Davis Schneider to 3rd.3–2
1Jon Singleton singles on a line drive to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Alex Bregman scores. Yordan Alvarez scores.3–0
1Yainer Diaz grounds out, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to pitcher Chris Bassitt. Jose Altuve scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














