Rays at Blue Jays
Last play · José Caballero grounds out, third baseman Ernie Clement to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
TB 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 2 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Turner singles on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. George Springer scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Blue Jays
9Ben Rortvedt doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to right fielder George Springer. Randy Arozarena scores.3–6
8Alejandro Kirk reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Taylor Walls. Daulton Varsho scores. Alejandro Kirk to 2nd.2–6
8Daulton Varsho singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Richie Palacios. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Justin Turner to 3rd.2–4
8Justin Turner singles on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. George Springer scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd.2–3
6Randy Arozarena singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daulton Varsho. Richie Palacios scores. Brandon Lowe to 2nd.2–2
5Josh Lowe singles on a ground ball to right fielder George Springer, deflected by first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Randy Arozarena scores.1–2
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
1Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Spencer Horwitz scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














