Reds at Blue Jays
Last play · Jonathan India grounds out, shortstop Leo Jiménez to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
CIN 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 10 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · George Springer homers (15) on a line drive to left field. Addison Barger scores. (inning 2) — +16% Blue Jays
8Spencer Steer singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Davis Schneider. Stuart Fairchild scores. Will Benson to 2nd.3–10
6Tyler Stephenson grounds out, third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Elly De La Cruz scores.2–10
5George Springer homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.1–10
5Leo Jiménez homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Joey Loperfido scores.1–9
4Will Wagner reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Noelvi Marte. Daulton Varsho scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd.1–7
3Spencer Horwitz homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.1–6
3Alejandro Kirk homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
2George Springer homers (15) on a line drive to left field. Addison Barger scores.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
