Marlins at Nationals
Last play · Vidal Bruján strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Nationals100%
MIA 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 2 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Nationals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jacob Young homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — +22% Nationals
6Ildemaro Vargas doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Nick Senzel scores.1–3
5Jacob Young homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
5Jazz Chisholm Jr. singles on a ground ball to second baseman Luis García Jr. , deflected by pitcher Mitchell Parker. Emmanuel Rivera scores.1–1
1Lane Thomas homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














