Cardinals at Nationals
Last play · Lane Thomas grounds out, third baseman Nolan Arenado to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Nationals0%
STL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +135
Nationals favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Keibert Ruiz singles on a line drive to right fielder Alec Burleson. James Wood scores. (inning 10) — +41% Nationals
11Willson Contreras strikes out swinging. Masyn Winn scores. Willson Contreras to 1st. Passed ball by catcher Riley Adams.7–6
10Keibert Ruiz singles on a line drive to right fielder Alec Burleson. James Wood scores.6–6
10Nolan Gorman singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Brendan Donovan scores. Nolan Gorman to 2nd.6–5
9Willson Contreras homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.5–5
8Nolan Gorman singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Nolan Arenado scores.4–5
5Willson Contreras singles on a line drive to left fielder James Wood. Masyn Winn scores.3–5
4Pedro Pagés singles on a ground ball to third baseman Nick Senzel. Nolan Arenado scores. Brendan Donovan to 2nd.2–5
4Dylan Carlson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Lane Thomas. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














