Padres at Nationals
Last play · James Wood strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
SD 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 0 WSH
Padres led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Nationals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Arraez homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 5) — -16% Padres
8Jackson Merrill grounds out, second baseman Luis García Jr. to first baseman Juan Yepez. Xander Bogaerts scores. Manny Machado to 3rd. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.4–0
6Jackson Merrill singles on a line drive to right fielder Lane Thomas. Manny Machado scores.3–0
5Jurickson Profar homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
5Luis Arraez homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














