Montana State vs. Nevada: Live Score & Win Probability
Live win probability & matchup
MONT 7 plays, 75 yds · from MONT 35
MONT gets the ball to start the 2nd half
Last playEnd of 2nd quarter.
MONTTeam statsNEV
- Q2 5:39MONTA. Jones run for 6 yds, for a TD (M. Sansted KICK)17–0
- Q1 1:35MONTM. Sansted 45 yd FG GOOD10–0
- Q1 12:05MONTJ. Lamson pass to D. Steel for 24 yds, for a TD ( KICK) (M. Sansted KICK)7–0
Our model, right now
What the numbers say
- MONT is playing behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NEV is not facing the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 7.8
- MONT is winning this through the air — that lane, not the scoreboard, is the story against NEV. +0.52 vs -0.12 EPA/play
- NEV keeps reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives are working, the finishes are not. 0.0 pts per trip vs 3.4
Where this stands
updatingA big swing and efficiency give Montana State the edge
Lamson's swing
Justin Lamson’s 24‑yard pass to Dane Steel on the opening drive swings win chance up 16 points, turning a tie into a 7‑0 lead.
Montana State runs at a 91.7% success rate and 0.69 EPA per pass, while Nevada is only 50% and 0.31 EPA, widening the gap.
Nevada fourth-down
Nevada’s lone fourth‑down attempt is successful, costing no points, but it hasn’t changed the 7‑0 deficit.
Live win probability
Despite being a 5.5‑point favorite, the live model now gives Nevada a 56.2% chance to win, reflecting the early shift.
- Our model prices this game live at MONT −12.3 (14% MONT).
- Against the pregame line (MONT −5.5), MONT covers in 73% of finishes from this state.
- Scoring pace projects a final total of 43 vs the 51.5 line — the under hits 83%.
Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.
- 1&10End of 2nd quarter.
- 1&10(00:08) Kneel down by #8 J.Lamson at MSU19 for loss of 1 yard−0.63
- PassJustin Lamson 11/16, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAdam Jones 9 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTaco Dowler 3 REC, 38 YDS
- PassLuke Duncan 7/16, 51 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDominic Kelley 12 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecDamien Morgan 4 REC, 26 YDS
Teams up 17 with 30 minutes left — like Montana State right now — went on to win 94% of the time across 788 comparable historical situations.
- Jackson State vs South Carolina StateW 37–7
- Elon vs North Carolina A&TW 27–3
- Duquesne vs Central ConnecticutW 44–20
- Lafayette vs ColgateL 34–37
- Houston Christian vs Northwestern StateW 65–24
- Q2 5:39MONT +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Jones rush left for 6 yards gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 12:05MONT +16%
Shotgun #8 J.Lamson pass complete short right to #84 D.Steel caught at Nevada12, for 24 yards to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:35MONT +9%
#39 M.Sansted field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD
FAQ
Who will win Montana State vs. Nevada?
Gridpex's model favors Nevada with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Montana State vs. Nevada?
The model projects Nevada by 11.0.
What time is Montana State vs. Nevada and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM ET on CW | The CW Network | ESPN Unlmtd, at Mackay Stadium.
| MONT | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 227 | Total yards | 159 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 51 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 108 |
| 14 | First downs | 11 |
| 4-7 | 3rd down | 0-5 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 11/16 | Comp/Att | 7/16 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 3.2 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 10-90 | Penalties | 6-61 |
| 15:52 | Possession | 14:08 |
- MONTEnd Of Half1 plays · -1 yds · from MONT 20 · Q2 0:08−0.6 EPA
- NEVInterception9 plays · 69 yds · from NEV 20 · Q2 1:26+1.1 EPA−1% WP
- MONTPunt3 plays · 2 yds · from MONT 36 · Q2 2:30−0.6 EPA+1% WP
- NEVDowns7 plays · 39 yds · from NEV 35 · Q2 5:39+1.2 EPA−2% WP
- MONTTouchdown10 plays · 83 yds · from MONT 17 · Q2 10:52+4.6 EPA+23% WP
- NEVInterception10 plays · 45 yds · from NEV 35 · Q1 1:29−0.7 EPA−3% WP
- MONTField Goal8 plays · 49 yds · from MONT 24 · Q1 4:07+2.9 EPA+10% WP
- NEVPunt4 plays · -2 yds · from NEV 25 · Q1 5:27+1.9 EPA−1% WP
- MONTPunt6 plays · 11 yds · from MONT 43 · Q1 9:12−2.0 EPA+1% WP
- NEVDowns6 plays · 23 yds · from NEV 35 · Q1 11:58+2.0 EPA−1% WP
- MONTTouchdown7 plays · 75 yds · from MONT 35 · Q1 15:00+2.5 EPA+15% WP
- 1&10End of 2nd quarter.
- 1&10(00:08) Kneel down by #8 J.Lamson at MSU19 for loss of 1 yard−0.63
- Q2 5:39MONTA. Jones run for 6 yds, for a TD (M. Sansted KICK)17–0
- Q1 1:35MONTM. Sansted 45 yd FG GOOD10–0
- Q1 12:05MONTJ. Lamson pass to D. Steel for 24 yds, for a TD ( KICK) (M. Sansted KICK)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects NEV -11 (74% to win) — 16.5 points clear of NEV's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →