Norfolk State vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NORFTeam statsUVA
- Q4 4:17UVAJustin Rowe 50 Yd Interception Return (Chris Messmore Kick)3–59
- Q4 7:23UVAWill Bettridge 30 Yd Field Goal 3–52
- Q4 14:54UVAHayden Rollison 12 Yd pass from Cole Geer (Will Bettridge Kick)3–49
- Q3 7:21UVAIsaiah Robinson 5 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Will Bettridge Kick)3–42
- Q3 10:57UVATy'Lyric Coleman 1 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Will Bettridge Kick)3–35
- Q2 1:04UVAPeyton Lewis 3 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)3–28
- Q2 4:05NORFMarco Peery 40 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q1 3:12UVAJacquon Gibson 30 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:30UVADa'Shawn Martin 27 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:39UVAJacquon Gibson 6 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
How it was won
Virginia stayed on schedule on nearly 62% of its plays while Norfolk managed just 36%, fueling a 56‑point win.
Pribula vs Bailey
Beau Pribula’s 12‑of‑14 passing for 162 yards and three touchdowns eclipsed Deljay Bailey’s 15‑of‑25 for 142 yards and two picks.
Norfolk 4th‑and‑7
Norfolk State’s decision to go for it on 4th‑and‑7 at the 29, contrary to the model’s kick preference, cost an expected 0.6 points.
Turnover margin
Virginia’s +2 turnover edge and fewer penalty yards (25 vs 37) helped sustain drives despite Norfolk holding the ball longer (31:46 vs 28:14).
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = NORF ahead, below = UVA ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassDeljay Bailey 15/25, 142 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJalyn Daniels 6 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecElyjah Mitchell 5 REC, 43 YDS
- PassBeau Pribula 12/14, 162 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushXay Davis 11 CAR, 107 YDS
- RecJacquon Gibson 2 REC, 36 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Norfolk State vs. Virginia?
Norfolk State 3, Virginia 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
| NORF | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 223 | Total yards | 466 |
| 168 | Passing yards | 229 |
| 55 | Rushing yards | 237 |
| 11 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/34 | Comp/Att | 18/24 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-37 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 31:46 | Possession | 28:14 |
- Q4 4:17UVAJustin Rowe 50 Yd Interception Return (Chris Messmore Kick)3–59
- Q4 7:23UVAWill Bettridge 30 Yd Field Goal 3–52
- Q4 14:54UVAHayden Rollison 12 Yd pass from Cole Geer (Will Bettridge Kick)3–49
- Q3 7:21UVAIsaiah Robinson 5 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Will Bettridge Kick)3–42
- Q3 10:57UVATy'Lyric Coleman 1 Yd pass from Eli Holstein (Will Bettridge Kick)3–35
- Q2 1:04UVAPeyton Lewis 3 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)3–28
- Q2 4:05NORFMarco Peery 40 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q1 3:12UVAJacquon Gibson 30 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:30UVADa'Shawn Martin 27 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:39UVAJacquon Gibson 6 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -46.7 (100% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →