Rice vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RICETeam statsUSF
- Q4 3:46RICERawson MacNeill 9 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (AJ Padgett Pass to Luke McCaffrey for Two-Point Conversion)29–42
- Q4 8:52USFNay'Quan Wright 1 Yd Run (Sean Atkins Pass to Byrum Brown for Two-Point Conversion)21–42
- Q4 13:22USFSean Atkins 8 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)21–34
- Q3 2:07USFNaiem Simmons 49 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)21–27
- Q3 7:53RICEDean Connors 80 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)21–20
- Q3 13:54USFByrum Brown 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–20
- Q2 0:15RICEDean Connors 2 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)14–13
- Q2 1:35USFK'Wan Powell 26 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:07USFJohn Cannon 40 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 2:28RICEDaelen Alexander 3 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:22USFJohn Cannon 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJT Daniels 27/40, 432 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJuma Otoviano 4 CAR, 12 YDS
- RecLuke McCaffrey 9 REC, 199 YDS
- PassByrum Brown 22/29, 435 YDS, 2 TD
- RushByrum Brown 14 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNaiem Simmons 8 REC, 272 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,660 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:53RICE +31%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 80 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q3 2:07USF +27%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 49 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q2 0:15RICE +22%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q3 13:54USF +21%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q2 1:35USF +20%
K'Wan Powell run for 26 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q1 2:28RICE +19%
JT Daniels pass complete to Daelen Alexander for 3 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Rice vs. South Florida?
Rice 29, South Florida 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
| RICE | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 492 | Total yards | 597 |
| 491 | Passing yards | 435 |
| 1 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 19 | First downs | 25 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 34/50 | Comp/Att | 22/29 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 15.0 |
| 0.1 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-41 | Penalties | 9-89 |
| 32:27 | Possession | 27:33 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:46RICERawson MacNeill 9 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (AJ Padgett Pass to Luke McCaffrey for Two-Point Conversion)29–42
- Q4 8:52USFNay'Quan Wright 1 Yd Run (Sean Atkins Pass to Byrum Brown for Two-Point Conversion)21–42
- Q4 13:22USFSean Atkins 8 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)21–34
- Q3 2:07USFNaiem Simmons 49 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)21–27
- Q3 7:53RICEDean Connors 80 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)21–20
- Q3 13:54USFByrum Brown 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–20
- Q2 0:15RICEDean Connors 2 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)14–13
- Q2 1:35USFK'Wan Powell 26 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:07USFJohn Cannon 40 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 2:28RICEDaelen Alexander 3 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:22USFJohn Cannon 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1279, RICE Elo 1199 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -5.6 (66% to win) — 8.1 points clear of USF's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| RICE | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 (#89) | CORE overall | -7.8 (#94) |
| -1 / +5 | offense / defense | -1 / +6 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 2.13 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 2.46 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +11 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →