LSU vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsFSU
- Q4 1:15LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 75 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)24–45
- Q4 1:26FSUJaheim Bell 4 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–45
- Q4 7:00FSUJaheim Bell 44 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–38
- Q4 10:18FSUKeon Coleman 7 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–31
- Q3 2:42FSUJordan Travis 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:19FSURyan Fitzgerald 33 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 0:00LSUDamian Ramos 36 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 1:01FSUKeon Coleman 21 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)14–14
- Q2 6:02LSUNoah Cain 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:48LSUTre Bradford 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:53FSUKeon Coleman 40 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJayden Daniels 22/37, 346 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJayden Daniels 15 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecBrian Thomas Jr. 7 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJordan Travis 23/31, 342 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushTrey Benson 12 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecKeon Coleman 9 REC, 122 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,296 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:42FSU +28%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
- Q2 1:01FSU +23%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 21 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
- Q2 6:02LSU +21%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q1 3:48LSU +19%
Tre Bradford run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q1 7:53FSU +18%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
- Q3 9:19FSU +12%
Ryan Fitzgerald 33 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Florida State?
LSU 24, Florida State 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LSU | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 459 | Total yards | 494 |
| 346 | Passing yards | 359 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 135 |
| 23 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 22/37 | Comp/Att | 24/32 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 11.2 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 7-64 |
| 24:37 | Possession | 35:23 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:21 FSU punt on 4th & 1 at FSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:15LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 75 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)24–45
- Q4 1:26FSUJaheim Bell 4 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–45
- Q4 7:00FSUJaheim Bell 44 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–38
- Q4 10:18FSUKeon Coleman 7 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–31
- Q3 2:42FSUJordan Travis 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:19FSURyan Fitzgerald 33 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 0:00LSUDamian Ramos 36 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q2 1:01FSUKeon Coleman 21 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)14–14
- Q2 6:02LSUNoah Cain 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:48LSUTre Bradford 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:53FSUKeon Coleman 40 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1732, LSU Elo 1747 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects FSU +0.6 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #106 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #47 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →Florida State leads 9–2 · Florida State has won 6 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| LSU | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.8 (#10) | CORE overall | +16.3 (#20) |
| +31 / +10 | offense / defense | +3 / -13 |
| 3.86 | points / drive | 2.70 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 1.47 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →