Michigan vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsIU
- Q4 8:40IUStevie Scott III 2 Yd Run (Charles Campbell Kick)21–38
- Q4 13:43MICHRonnie Bell 21 Yd pass from Joe Milton (Quinn Nordin Kick)21–31
- Q3 4:39IUStevie Scott III 1 Yd Run (Charles Campbell Kick)14–31
- Q3 9:01MICHRoman Wilson 13 Yd pass from Joe Milton (Quinn Nordin Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:56IUPeyton Hendershot 1 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)7–24
- Q2 6:53IUCharles Campbell 52 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 1:41IUTy Fryfogle 24 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:48MICHCornelius Johnson 37 Yd pass from Joe Milton (Quinn Nordin Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:57IUMiles Marshall 13 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MICH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.1 vs 3rd & 5.6
- MICH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 24% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassJoe Milton III 18/34, 344 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushHassan Haskins 6 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecRonnie Bell 6 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMichael Penix Jr. 30/50, 342 YDS, 3 TD
- RushStevie Scott 24 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTy Fryfogle 7 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:41IU +22%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 24 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
- Q1 4:48MICH +19%
Joe Milton pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 37 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
- Q1 8:57IU +19%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 13 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
- Q3 9:01MICH +17%
Joe Milton pass complete to Roman Wilson for 13 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
- Q2 0:56IU +16%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
- Q4 13:43MICH +14%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 21 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Indiana?
Michigan 21, Indiana 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MICH | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 357 | Total yards | 460 |
| 344 | Passing yards | 342 |
| 13 | Rushing yards | 118 |
| 17 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 18/34 | Comp/Att | 30/50 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 0.7 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-89 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 21:10 | Possession | 38:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:19 IU punt on 4th & 1 at IU 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:40IUStevie Scott III 2 Yd Run (Charles Campbell Kick)21–38
- Q4 13:43MICHRonnie Bell 21 Yd pass from Joe Milton (Quinn Nordin Kick)21–31
- Q3 4:39IUStevie Scott III 1 Yd Run (Charles Campbell Kick)14–31
- Q3 9:01MICHRoman Wilson 13 Yd pass from Joe Milton (Quinn Nordin Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:56IUPeyton Hendershot 1 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)7–24
- Q2 6:53IUCharles Campbell 52 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 1:41IUTy Fryfogle 24 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:48MICHCornelius Johnson 37 Yd pass from Joe Milton (Quinn Nordin Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:57IUMiles Marshall 13 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 1590, MICH Elo 1827 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU +7.1 (33% to win) — 3.1 points clear of MICH's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #75 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Michigan leads 62–11 · 26% have been one-possession games
| MICH | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.9 (#90) | CORE overall | -3.5 (#77) |
| +1 / +9 | offense / defense | -9 / -5 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.80 | allowed / drive | 1.58 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →