Cincinnati vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CINTeam statsSMU
- Q4 2:03CINGerrid Doaks 35 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)42–13
- Q4 4:39CINDesmond Ridder 91 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)35–13
- Q4 11:57SMUChris Naggar 22 Yd Field Goal 28–13
- Q3 3:22CINDesmond Ridder 32 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)28–10
- Q3 6:13CINGerrid Doaks 1 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)21–10
- Q2 0:00SMUChris Naggar 26 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 6:23SMURashee Rice 9 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Chris Naggar Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:20CINDesmond Ridder 15 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:05CINJosh Whyle 7 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Cole Smith Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDesmond Ridder 13/21, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDesmond Ridder 8 CAR, 179 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTre Tucker 2 REC, 24 YDS
- PassShane Buechele 23/44, 216 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushUlysses Bentley IV 16 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecKylen Granson 4 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:13CIN +19%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
- Q1 6:05CIN +18%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
- Q2 6:23SMU +14%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)
- Q1 2:20CIN +14%
Desmond Ridder run for 15 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
- Q2 0:00SMU +9%
Chris Naggar 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 3:22CIN +7%
Desmond Ridder run for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Cincinnati vs. SMU?
Cincinnati 42, SMU 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
| CIN | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 439 | Total yards | 290 |
| 126 | Passing yards | 215 |
| 313 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 17 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 7-20 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-5 |
| 13/21 | Comp/Att | 24/46 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 8.9 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-126 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 27:15 | Possession | 32:45 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:57 SMU field goal on 4th & 2 at CIN 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:03CINGerrid Doaks 35 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)42–13
- Q4 4:39CINDesmond Ridder 91 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)35–13
- Q4 11:57SMUChris Naggar 22 Yd Field Goal 28–13
- Q3 3:22CINDesmond Ridder 32 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)28–10
- Q3 6:13CINGerrid Doaks 1 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)21–10
- Q2 0:00SMUChris Naggar 26 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 6:23SMURashee Rice 9 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Chris Naggar Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:20CINDesmond Ridder 15 Yd Run (Cole Smith Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:05CINJosh Whyle 7 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Cole Smith Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SMU Elo 1612, CIN Elo 1706 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SMU +1.4 (48% to win) — 2.4 points clear of CIN's market line of -1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #96 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| CIN | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +23.4 (#5) | CORE overall | +0.3 (#65) |
| +8 / -16 | offense / defense | +4 / +3 |
| 2.84 | points / drive | 2.90 |
| 1.19 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →