Miami vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsFSU
- Q4 6:27MIACamden Price 32 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q4 12:05MIADee Wiggins 56 Yd pass from Jarren Williams (Camden Price Kick)24–10
- Q3 10:31FSUCam Akers 18 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Ricky Aguayo Kick)17–10
- Q2 0:00MIACamden Price 29 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 3:58MIADeeJay Dallas 6 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)14–3
- Q2 10:15FSURicky Aguayo 37 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:10MIAJeff Thomas 39 Yd pass from Jarren Williams (Camden Price Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 27% success rate
- PassJarren Williams 21/37, 313 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDeeJay Dallas 18 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeff Thomas 4 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAlex Hornibrook 17/24, 135 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCam Akers 22 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecGabe Nabers 3 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 12:05MIA +22%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 56 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
- Q2 3:58MIA +20%
DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
- Q1 9:10MIA +19%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 39 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
- Q3 10:31FSU +18%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for 18 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
- Q3 0:00MIA +10%
Jarren Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20
- Q2 10:15FSU +8%
Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Florida State?
Miami 27, Florida State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 353 | Total yards | 203 |
| 313 | Passing yards | 172 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 31 |
| 13 | First downs | 15 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 21/37 | Comp/Att | 20/28 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 0.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-65 | Penalties | 10-75 |
| 28:24 | Possession | 31:36 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:55 MIA field goal on 4th & 1 at FSU 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:27MIACamden Price 32 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q4 12:05MIADee Wiggins 56 Yd pass from Jarren Williams (Camden Price Kick)24–10
- Q3 10:31FSUCam Akers 18 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Ricky Aguayo Kick)17–10
- Q2 0:00MIACamden Price 29 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 3:58MIADeeJay Dallas 6 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)14–3
- Q2 10:15FSURicky Aguayo 37 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:10MIAJeff Thomas 39 Yd pass from Jarren Williams (Camden Price Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1539, MIA Elo 1562 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU -1.5 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#56 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #93 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Miami leads 37–33 · Miami has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| MIA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.7 (#35) | CORE overall | -0.1 (#63) |
| -2 / -11 | offense / defense | -3 / -3 |
| 1.94 | points / drive | 1.91 |
| 1.78 | allowed / drive | 2.15 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →