Northwestern vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsILL
- Q4 1:09NUCoco Azema 24 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)29–10
- Q4 13:28NUAndrew Marty 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander PAT failed)23–10
- Q3 2:30ILLJames McCourt 50 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 8:03NURiley Lees 34 Yd pass from Andrew Marty (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)17–7
- Q2 5:20NUAndrew Marty 12 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)10–7
- Q2 13:44ILLDre Brown 6 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)3–7
- Q1 3:05NUCharlie Kuhbander 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassAndrew Marty 6/10, 55 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCoco Azema 7 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRiley Lees 5 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMatt Robinson 8/17, 108 YDS
- RushDre Brown 5 CAR, 17 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCaleb Reams 5 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:03NU +25%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 34 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
- Q2 5:20NU +22%
Andrew Marty run for 12 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
- Q2 13:44ILL +19%
Dre Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
- Q4 13:28NU +17%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander PAT MISSED)
- Q3 2:30NU +12%
Andrew Marty run for 2 yds to the Illin 10
- Q3 2:30ILL +10%
James McCourt 50 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Illinois?
Northwestern 29, Illinois 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ILL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 433 | Total yards | 160 |
| 55 | Passing yards | 146 |
| 378 | Rushing yards | 14 |
| 22 | First downs | 9 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 4-6 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 6/10 | Comp/Att | 11/23 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 0.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-23 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 41:48 | Possession | 18:12 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:24 NU punt on 4th & 4 at NU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:09NUCoco Azema 24 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)29–10
- Q4 13:28NUAndrew Marty 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander PAT failed)23–10
- Q3 2:30ILLJames McCourt 50 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 8:03NURiley Lees 34 Yd pass from Andrew Marty (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)17–7
- Q2 5:20NUAndrew Marty 12 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)10–7
- Q2 13:44ILLDre Brown 6 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)3–7
- Q1 3:05NUCharlie Kuhbander 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1489, NU Elo 1439 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL -4.4 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #70 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Illinois leads 59–55–5 · Illinois has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| NU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.2 (#82) | CORE overall | -5.5 (#83) |
| -14 / -9 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 1.33 | points / drive | 1.80 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -12 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →