Wisconsin vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WISTeam statsILL
- Q4 0:00ILLJames McCourt 39 Yd Field Goal 23–24
- Q4 5:53ILLJosh Imatorbhebhe 29 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick)23–21
- Q4 9:46WISCollin Larsh 20 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q3 0:48ILLReggie Corbin 43 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)20–14
- Q3 10:31WISJonathan Taylor 5 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)20–7
- Q2 1:47WISCollin Larsh 44 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 5:53ILLDonny Navarro 48 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:02WISCollin Larsh 24 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 9:15WISJake Ferguson 18 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Collin Larsh Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ILL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 6.1
- ILL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassJack Coan 24/32, 264 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJonathan Taylor 28 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJake Ferguson 5 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrandon Peters 9/21, 174 YDS, 2 TD
- RushReggie Corbin 17 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonny Navarro III 1 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWIS up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00ILL +71%
James McCourt 39 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 5:53ILL +26%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 29 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
- Q4 2:02ILL +23%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 47
- Q4 4:59WIS +15%
Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32
- Q4 0:47WIS +7%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38
- Q3 0:48ILL +7%
Reggie Corbin run for 43 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wisconsin vs. Illinois?
Wisconsin 23, Illinois 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WIS | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 420 | Total yards | 315 |
| 264 | Passing yards | 174 |
| 156 | Rushing yards | 141 |
| 22 | First downs | 17 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 2-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/32 | Comp/Att | 9/21 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 4-15 |
| 40:49 | Possession | 19:11 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:46 WIS field goal on 4th & 2 at ILL 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00ILLJames McCourt 39 Yd Field Goal 23–24
- Q4 5:53ILLJosh Imatorbhebhe 29 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick)23–21
- Q4 9:46WISCollin Larsh 20 Yd Field Goal 23–14
- Q3 0:48ILLReggie Corbin 43 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)20–14
- Q3 10:31WISJonathan Taylor 5 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)20–7
- Q2 1:47WISCollin Larsh 44 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 5:53ILLDonny Navarro 48 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:02WISCollin Larsh 24 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 9:15WISJake Ferguson 18 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Collin Larsh Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1346, WIS Elo 2056 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL +26 (6% to win) — 3.5 points clear of ILL's market line of +29.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #1 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds · #3 of 51 in 2019 by biggest poll gap.
The 2019 upset archive →Wisconsin leads 46–38–7 · Wisconsin has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| WIS | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| +33.0 (#5) | CORE overall | -5.5 (#83) |
| +18 / -15 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 2.92 | points / drive | 1.80 |
| 1.35 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →