Tulane vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsUSF
- Q4 1:52TULNJONES,A. 8 yd run (GLOVER,M. kick)41–15
- Q4 9:26USFBARNETT, Blake 1 yd run (BARNETT, Blake pass failed)34–15
- Q3 0:45USFFORD, Johnny 5 yd run (WEISS, Coby kick blockd)34–9
- Q3 3:48TULNBRADWELL,D. 73 yd run (GLOVER,M. kick)34–3
- Q2 0:08TULNGLOVER,M. 24 yd field goal27–3
- Q2 5:57TULNCorey Dauphine 21 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)24–3
- Q2 11:23TULNDAUPHINE,C. 1 yd run (GLOVER,M. kick)17–3
- Q2 13:31TULNGLOVER,M. 38 yd field goal10–3
- Q1 2:49TULNJustin McMillan 33 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:40USFWEISS, Coby 27 yd field goal0–3
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TULN ahead, below = USF ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJustin McMillan 4/11, 61 YDS
- RushDarius Bradwell 15 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDarnell Mooney 1 REC, 39 YDS
- PassBlake Barnett 29/49, 338 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBlake Barnett 16 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyre McCants 9 REC, 85 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. South Florida?
Tulane 41, South Florida 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TULN | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 426 | Total yards | 440 |
| 61 | Passing yards | 338 |
| 365 | Rushing yards | 102 |
| 17 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 4/11 | Comp/Att | 29/49 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 7.0 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-52 | Penalties | 10-91 |
| 31:16 | Possession | 28:44 |
- Q4 1:52TULNJONES,A. 8 yd run (GLOVER,M. kick)41–15
- Q4 9:26USFBARNETT, Blake 1 yd run (BARNETT, Blake pass failed)34–15
- Q3 0:45USFFORD, Johnny 5 yd run (WEISS, Coby kick blockd)34–9
- Q3 3:48TULNBRADWELL,D. 73 yd run (GLOVER,M. kick)34–3
- Q2 0:08TULNGLOVER,M. 24 yd field goal27–3
- Q2 5:57TULNCorey Dauphine 21 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)24–3
- Q2 11:23TULNDAUPHINE,C. 1 yd run (GLOVER,M. kick)17–3
- Q2 13:31TULNGLOVER,M. 38 yd field goal10–3
- Q1 2:49TULNJustin McMillan 33 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:40USFWEISS, Coby 27 yd field goal0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1557, TULN Elo 1381 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -9.4 (74% to win) — 3.4 points clear of USF's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #70 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| TULN | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.9 (#81) | CORE overall | -11.8 (#102) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -6 / +6 |
| 1.81 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →