UAB vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsLT
- Q4 4:35UABA.J. Erdely 38 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)28–7
- Q4 8:08UABSpencer Brown 26 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)21–7
- Q3 7:18UABSpencer Brown 1 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)14–7
- Q2 10:26UABXavier Ubosi 40 Yd pass from A.J. Erdely (Nick Vogel Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:24LTKam McKnight 5 Yd Run (Bailey Hale Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UAB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 6.4
- LT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassA.J. Erdely 8/24, 136 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSpencer Brown 20 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
- RecXavier Ubosi 2 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJ'Mar Smith 10/24, 109 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKam McKnight 15 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTeddy Veal 6 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUAB up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:18UAB +29%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
- Q4 8:08UAB +19%
Spencer Brown run for 26 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the UAB 35
- Q2 10:26UAB +17%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 40 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
- Q3 0:10UAB +16%
Jarrion Street run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 16
- Q1 13:24LT +13%
Kam McKnight run for 5 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)
- Q4 12:48UAB +13%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 10 yds to the UAB 21 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Louisiana Tech?
UAB 28, Louisiana Tech 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UAB | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 365 | Total yards | 258 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 109 |
| 229 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 16 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 8/24 | Comp/Att | 10/24 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 2-17 |
| 30:01 | Possession | 29:59 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:31 UAB punt on 4th & 1 at UAB 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:35UABA.J. Erdely 38 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)28–7
- Q4 8:08UABSpencer Brown 26 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)21–7
- Q3 7:18UABSpencer Brown 1 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)14–7
- Q2 10:26UABXavier Ubosi 40 Yd pass from A.J. Erdely (Nick Vogel Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:24LTKam McKnight 5 Yd Run (Bailey Hale Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1519, UAB Elo 1349 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT -9.2 (74% to win) — 2.2 points clear of LT's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #57 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Louisiana Tech leads 6–5 · UAB has won 2 straight · 45% have been one-possession games
| UAB | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.7 (#27) | CORE overall | -2.7 (#80) |
| +5 / -7 | offense / defense | -6 / -4 |
| 2.39 | points / drive | 1.71 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →