Mississippi State vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSSTTeam statsUK
- Q4 3:45UKBenny Snell Jr. 23 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)7–28
- Q4 8:00UKBenny Snell Jr. 36 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)7–21
- Q3 6:03UKBenny Snell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)7–14
- Q2 0:50UKBenny Snell Jr. 2 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)7–7
- Q2 8:42MSSTNick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MSST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 7.1
- PassNick Fitzgerald 16/32, 145 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAeris Williams 8 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecOsirus Mitchell 6 REC, 65 YDS
- PassTerry Wilson 8/14, 71 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBenny Snell Jr. 25 CAR, 165 YDS, 4 TD
- RecDorian Baker 1 REC, 23 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:03UK +37%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
- Q4 8:00UK +25%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 36 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
- Q2 0:50UK +19%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
- Q2 8:42MSST +15%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
- Q3 1:36UK +13%
Terry Wilson pass intercepted Brian Cole return for no gain to the Kent 49
- Q4 12:13UK +12%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 2
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Kentucky?
Mississippi State 7, Kentucky 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MSST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MSST | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 201 | Total yards | 300 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 71 |
| 56 | Rushing yards | 229 |
| 11 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/32 | Comp/Att | 8/14 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 16-139 | Penalties | 5-42 |
| 29:03 | Possession | 30:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:16 MSST punt on 4th & 1 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:45UKBenny Snell Jr. 23 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)7–28
- Q4 8:00UKBenny Snell Jr. 36 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)7–21
- Q3 6:03UKBenny Snell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)7–14
- Q2 0:50UKBenny Snell Jr. 2 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)7–7
- Q2 8:42MSSTNick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1510, MSST Elo 1808 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK +9.5 (27% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #39 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #16 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Mississippi State leads 26–25 · Kentucky has won 2 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| MSST | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +23.6 (#7) | CORE overall | +9.7 (#31) |
| +3 / -21 | offense / defense | +3 / -7 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.02 |
| 1.24 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →