Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VTTeam statsOSU
- Q4 0:46VTDonovan Riley 63 Yd Interception Return (Joey Slye Kick)35–21
- Q4 8:44VTBucky Hodges 10 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)28–21
- Q4 11:40OSUEzekiel Elliott 15 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)21–21
- Q3 3:01OSUMichael Thomas 53 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:52VTSam Rogers 10 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:19VTMarshawn Williams 14 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:51OSUJ.T. Barrett 2 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:05VTShai McKenzie 2 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.9 vs 3rd & 7.4
- OSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 30% success rate
- PassMichael Brewer 23/36, 199 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDeon Newsome 4 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecRyan Malleck 6 REC, 64 YDS
- PassJ.T. Barrett 9/29, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushJ.T. Barrett 24 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Thomas 6 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:44VT +42%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 10 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
- Q4 11:40OSU +38%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 15 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
- Q3 3:01OSU +28%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 53 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
- Q2 0:52VT +23%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 10 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
- Q4 5:56VT +19%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford
- Q1 0:19VT +18%
Marshawn Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State?
Virginia Tech 35, Ohio State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VT | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 324 | Total yards | 327 |
| 199 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 108 |
| 21 | First downs | 19 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 23/36 | Comp/Att | 9/29 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-107 | Penalties | 7-62 |
| 33:19 | Possession | 26:05 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:51 OSU punt on 4th & 8 at VT 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:46VTDonovan Riley 63 Yd Interception Return (Joey Slye Kick)35–21
- Q4 8:44VTBucky Hodges 10 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)28–21
- Q4 11:40OSUEzekiel Elliott 15 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)21–21
- Q3 3:01OSUMichael Thomas 53 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:52VTSam Rogers 10 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:19VTMarshawn Williams 14 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:51OSUJ.T. Barrett 2 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:05VTShai McKenzie 2 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 1836, VT Elo 1526 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -14.8 (84% to win) — 4.3 points clear of OSU's market line of -10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #29 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| VT | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 1.24 | allowed / drive | 1.45 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 18% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →