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Which is the best college football conference in 2014?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Points per drive allowed · 2014

FBS medianSECBig TenPac-12ACCBig 12American Athlet…Mountain WestConference USASun BeltMid-AmericanFBS Independents

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC141.70.742Ole Miss 0.959
Big Ten141.80.606Penn State 1.2
Pac-12121.91.3Stanford 1.4
ACC141.90.611Clemson 1.1
Big 12101.90.953TCU 1.0
American Athletic112.00.879Temple 1.2
Mountain West122.10.814Utah State 1.5
Conference USA132.20.877Louisiana Tech 1.6
Sun Belt112.21.0UL Monroe 1.8
Mid-American132.30.570Akron 1.9
FBS Independents42.30.739BYU 2.0

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.