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Which is the best college football conference in 2023?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense success rate · 2023

FBS medianBig 12Pac-12SECMountain WestAmerican Athlet…Sun BeltACCBig TenFBS IndependentsConference USAMid-American

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big 121444.0%6.8%Oklahoma 49.3%
Pac-121243.8%9.7%Oregon 56.3%
SEC1443.4%6.1%LSU 55.6%
Mountain West1242.5%3.6%Boise State 46.7%
American Athletic1441.9%5.3%UAB 47.7%
Sun Belt1441.8%7.4%Texas State 47.9%
ACC1441.2%4.3%Louisville 48.5%
Big Ten1441.2%6.4%Michigan 47.4%
FBS Independents440.9%8.8%Notre Dame 49.5%
Conference USA940.6%1.9%Liberty 51.5%
Mid-American1239.0%5.6%Toledo 45.7%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.