Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2018?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense EPA/play · 2018

FBS medianSECBig 12Sun BeltFBS IndependentsPac-12ACCBig TenAmerican Athlet…Mountain WestMid-AmericanConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC140.2190.094Alabama 0.404
Big 12100.2080.148Oklahoma 0.488
Sun Belt100.1900.042App State 0.257
FBS Independents60.1860.076Army 0.294
Pac-12120.1820.087Washington State 0.269
ACC140.1720.076Clemson 0.350
Big Ten140.1650.088Ohio State 0.282
American Athletic120.1580.183UCF 0.337
Mountain West120.1550.105Utah State 0.299
Mid-American120.1410.093Ohio 0.312
Conference USA140.1070.102Florida International 0.267

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.