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Which is the best college football conference in 2019?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Team talent composite · 2019

FBS medianSECBig TenPac-12ACCBig 12American Athlet…Conference USAMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanFBS Independents

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC14796.5141.2Alabama 985.0
Big Ten14668.8116.9Ohio State 973.6
Pac-1212653.4189.8USC 915.6
ACC14641.9117.5Florida State 878.1
Big 1210641.8114.4Texas 877.9
American Athletic12520.5108.4UCF 598.6
Conference USA14456.892.6Florida International 532.9
Mountain West12447.683.2Boise State 561.4
Sun Belt10385.063.3Arkansas State 447.9
Mid-American12332.5101.2Western Michigan 452.1
FBS Independents6314.3295.6Notre Dame 843.3

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.