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Which is the best college football conference in 2014?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Average starting field position · 2014

FBS medianBig TenConference USAACCSECPac-12Sun BeltFBS IndependentsMountain WestAmerican Athlet…Mid-AmericanBig 12

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big Ten1432.22.8Nebraska 37.6
Conference USA1331.63.6Louisiana Tech 36.2
ACC1431.33.2Duke 34.8
SEC1431.03.7Florida 35.3
Pac-121230.82.6Arizona State 34.4
Sun Belt1130.63.4Arkansas State 33.0
FBS Independents430.53.0Notre Dame 33.1
Mountain West1230.02.8San Diego State 32.6
American Athletic1129.73.4Memphis 35.4
Mid-American1329.52.5Akron 33.9
Big 121029.43.8TCU 35.5

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.