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Which is the best college football conference in 2021?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Team talent composite · 2021

FBS medianSECPac-12Big TenACCBig 12American Athlet…Conference USASun BeltMountain WestMid-AmericanFBS Independents

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC14764.4172.2Alabama 1004.0
Pac-1212721.1148.7Oregon 885.8
Big Ten14670.7102.1Ohio State 985.1
ACC14666.2162.0Clemson 935.1
Big 1210613.691.4Oklahoma 895.4
American Athletic11540.5105.5UCF 639.1
Conference USA14480.076.1Florida Atlantic 553.3
Sun Belt10422.234.9Arkansas State 475.7
Mountain West12404.150.7Boise State 557.7
Mid-American12347.448.5Toledo 465.4
FBS Independents7227.2325.7Notre Dame 853.1

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.