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Which is the best college football conference in 2014?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense success rate · 2014

FBS medianFBS IndependentsSECSun BeltBig 12Pac-12ACCBig TenAmerican Athlet…Mid-AmericanConference USAMountain West

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents445.3%5.8%Navy 51.0%
SEC1444.1%8.6%Mississippi State 51.0%
Sun Belt1143.7%7.0%Georgia Southern 51.2%
Big 121043.6%8.8%Baylor 50.1%
Pac-121243.6%3.7%Oregon 51.7%
ACC1443.1%8.6%Georgia Tech 53.5%
Big Ten1442.6%5.5%Ohio State 51.8%
American Athletic1141.5%8.6%East Carolina 49.4%
Mid-American1341.4%5.6%Toledo 50.4%
Conference USA1341.2%6.3%Western Kentucky 49.0%
Mountain West1240.5%7.0%Boise State 46.0%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.