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Which is the best college football conference in 2016?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Third down conversion · 2016

FBS medianFBS IndependentsBig 12ACCAmerican Athlet…Mountain WestSECMid-AmericanBig TenPac-12Sun BeltConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents444.6%10.7%Army 51.9%
Big 121043.5%5.4%Texas Tech 52.8%
ACC1442.8%9.0%Clemson 50.2%
American Athletic1242.3%9.0%Navy 55.1%
Mountain West1241.8%6.9%Boise State 47.9%
SEC1441.8%2.4%Alabama 44.2%
Mid-American1240.7%9.0%Western Michigan 54.7%
Big Ten1440.1%10.1%Ohio State 46.0%
Pac-121239.6%6.1%USC 48.0%
Sun Belt1138.2%6.4%Georgia Southern 45.7%
Conference USA1338.0%8.9%Louisiana Tech 50.3%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.