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Which is the best college football conference in 2018?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Team talent composite · 2018

FBS medianSECBig 12Pac-12Big TenACCAmerican Athlet…Mountain WestConference USAMid-AmericanSun BeltFBS Independents

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC14777.8137.1Alabama 978.5
Big 1210646.0110.3Texas 861.2
Pac-1212641.9192.3USC 933.6
Big Ten14634.3161.9Ohio State 984.3
ACC14633.9118.3Clemson 893.2
American Athletic12479.2114.1Houston 577.2
Mountain West12421.395.2Boise State 543.4
Conference USA14387.598.2Florida Atlantic 537.9
Mid-American12372.171.3Toledo 464.0
Sun Belt10354.391.1Arkansas State 433.7
FBS Independents6319.1335.1Notre Dame 847.9

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.