Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2023?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense EPA/play · 2023

FBS medianSECBig 12Mountain WestSun BeltPac-12ACCAmerican Athlet…Conference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanBig Ten

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC140.2270.122LSU 0.482
Big 12140.2200.117Kansas 0.384
Mountain West120.2010.101New Mexico 0.272
Sun Belt140.1910.116South Alabama 0.287
Pac-12120.1790.163Oregon 0.474
ACC140.1760.111North Carolina 0.285
American Athletic140.1660.150UAB 0.281
Conference USA90.1420.097Liberty 0.323
FBS Independents40.1350.219Notre Dame 0.341
Mid-American120.1260.122Toledo 0.276
Big Ten140.1110.108Ohio State 0.296

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.