Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2019?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

CORE offense · 2019

FBS medianSECAmerican Athlet…Pac-12Big 12Sun BeltBig TenMid-AmericanACCMountain WestFBS IndependentsConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC143.812.3LSU 34.1
American Athletic121.512.0Memphis 16.0
Pac-12121.410.9USC 11.4
Big 12101.311.4Oklahoma 25.6
Sun Belt100.2159.0Louisiana 10.8
Big Ten14-0.01014.6Ohio State 29.7
Mid-American12-0.4908.7Ohio 7.7
ACC14-2.515.8Clemson 16.4
Mountain West12-2.512.9Air Force 11.5
FBS Independents6-2.89.3Notre Dame 7.4
Conference USA14-5.08.4Charlotte 5.0

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.