Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2019?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

CORE overall · 2019

FBS medianBig 12Big TenSECAmerican Athlet…ACCPac-12Mountain WestSun BeltConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-American

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big 12108.318.4Oklahoma 27.0
Big Ten147.626.9Ohio State 49.6
SEC146.624.4LSU 50.8
American Athletic124.522.7Memphis 20.1
ACC141.116.8Clemson 44.0
Pac-12120.68516.3Utah 25.6
Mountain West12-3.611.3Air Force 14.7
Sun Belt10-5.410.4App State 10.2
Conference USA14-6.017.5Florida Atlantic 5.7
FBS Independents6-6.723.0Notre Dame 20.9
Mid-American12-10.49.4Buffalo 2.9

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.