Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2015?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Team talent composite · 2015

FBS medianSECPac-12Big 12ACCBig TenFBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…Conference USAMountain WestMid-AmericanSun Belt

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC14777.1185.4Alabama 981.9
Pac-1212646.7191.6USC 926.7
Big 1210635.7131.2Texas 821.3
ACC14626.1119.8Florida State 889.9
Big Ten14603.1156.2Ohio State 907.3
FBS Independents3521.4670.9Notre Dame 857.3
American Athletic12407.191.0South Florida 529.6
Conference USA13380.756.3Marshall 489.8
Mountain West12380.169.9Boise State 569.0
Mid-American13376.874.3Western Michigan 442.1
Sun Belt11335.798.4Louisiana 430.2

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.