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Which is the best college football conference in 2024?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense success rate · 2024

FBS medianPac-12SECBig 12Big TenMountain WestSun BeltACCFBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…Mid-AmericanConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Pac-12245.1%6.5%Washington State 48.3%
SEC1644.9%2.9%Arkansas 49.6%
Big 121644.1%5.0%Kansas 48.6%
Big Ten1844.1%7.8%Indiana 51.2%
Mountain West1243.2%4.9%Boise State 47.6%
Sun Belt1442.8%3.0%South Alabama 49.6%
ACC1741.9%4.9%Miami 51.8%
FBS Independents341.2%5.5%Notre Dame 45.7%
American Athletic1441.1%6.9%Army 50.0%
Mid-American1240.9%4.3%Ohio 46.0%
Conference USA1038.7%4.5%Liberty 48.1%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.