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Which is the best college football conference in 2022?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense EPA/play · 2022

FBS medianPac-12American Athlet…Big 12SECFBS IndependentsACCBig TenMid-AmericanConference USASun BeltMountain West

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Pac-12120.2480.162USC 0.402
American Athletic110.2340.071Houston 0.319
Big 12100.2160.079Kansas 0.332
SEC140.2070.149Tennessee 0.370
FBS Independents70.1670.186BYU 0.268
ACC140.1630.147Florida State 0.329
Big Ten140.1530.151Ohio State 0.372
Mid-American120.1300.112Eastern Michigan 0.231
Conference USA110.1260.150UAB 0.277
Sun Belt140.1240.132App State 0.274
Mountain West120.0890.168Air Force 0.285

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.