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Which is the best college football conference in 2019?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense EPA/play · 2019

FBS medianPac-12Sun BeltFBS IndependentsBig 12Mid-AmericanSECMountain WestAmerican Athlet…ACCConference USABig Ten

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Pac-12120.2080.097Utah 0.288
Sun Belt100.2070.090Louisiana 0.312
FBS Independents60.1970.166Liberty 0.258
Big 12100.1950.082Oklahoma 0.416
Mid-American120.1880.129Ohio 0.273
SEC140.1760.132LSU 0.435
Mountain West120.1700.114Air Force 0.288
American Athletic120.1600.175Navy 0.364
ACC140.1500.118Clemson 0.365
Conference USA140.1370.100Charlotte 0.225
Big Ten140.1300.172Ohio State 0.372

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.