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Which is the best college football conference in 2015?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense EPA/play · 2015

FBS medianBig 12Pac-12FBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…SECMountain WestACCSun BeltMid-AmericanBig TenConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big 12100.2150.165Baylor 0.374
Pac-12120.1970.121Stanford 0.293
FBS Independents30.1920.118Notre Dame 0.269
American Athletic120.1870.131Navy 0.324
SEC140.1700.143Arkansas 0.340
Mountain West120.1660.078Air Force 0.238
ACC140.1560.097North Carolina 0.338
Sun Belt110.1320.056App State 0.242
Mid-American130.1310.078Bowling Green 0.355
Big Ten140.1310.124Ohio State 0.226
Conference USA130.1110.149Western Kentucky 0.326

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.