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Which is the best college football conference in 2018?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Defense EPA/play allowed · 2018

FBS medianSECBig TenConference USAMountain WestACCPac-12American Athlet…Mid-AmericanFBS IndependentsBig 12Sun Belt

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC140.0970.138Mississippi State -0.051
Big Ten140.1080.126Michigan -0.007
Conference USA140.1300.088UAB -0.013
Mountain West120.1340.147Utah State 0.005
ACC140.1430.117Clemson -0.059
Pac-12120.1460.091California 0.011
American Athletic120.1630.112Cincinnati 0.004
Mid-American120.1680.142Northern Illinois 0.060
FBS Independents60.1720.104Notre Dame 0.056
Big 12100.1760.043TCU 0.078
Sun Belt100.1900.175App State -0.019

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.