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Which is the best college football conference in 2018?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

CORE overall · 2018

FBS medianSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12Mountain WestConference USASun BeltAmerican Athlet…Mid-AmericanFBS Independents

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC1417.115.9Alabama 49.7
Big Ten144.817.8Michigan 24.6
Big 12103.413.4Oklahoma 27.6
ACC143.18.6Clemson 40.2
Pac-12120.8659.1Washington 17.3
Mountain West12-2.230.5Utah State 26.8
Conference USA14-3.519.9UAB 11.7
Sun Belt10-4.816.9App State 12.8
American Athletic12-7.219.1UCF 14.1
Mid-American12-7.812.0Buffalo 1.1
FBS Independents6-7.922.6Notre Dame 17.0

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.