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Which is the best college football conference in 2021?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Defense EPA/play allowed · 2021

FBS medianBig TenSun BeltSECMountain WestConference USAACCAmerican Athlet…Pac-12Big 12FBS IndependentsMid-American

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big Ten140.1490.094Wisconsin -0.028
Sun Belt100.1520.131App State 0.077
SEC140.1540.077Georgia -0.062
Mountain West120.1550.044San Diego State 0.046
Conference USA140.1630.130Marshall 0.109
ACC140.1740.123Clemson 0.021
American Athletic110.1900.100Houston 0.041
Pac-12120.1950.069Arizona State 0.108
Big 12100.2020.116Oklahoma State 0.015
FBS Independents70.2250.224Notre Dame 0.068
Mid-American120.2530.081Toledo 0.019

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.