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Which is the best college football conference in 2016?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Team talent composite · 2016

FBS medianSECPac-12ACCBig TenBig 12American Athlet…FBS IndependentsConference USAMid-AmericanMountain WestSun Belt

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC14803.3186.2Alabama 982.7
Pac-1212655.3198.4USC 936.9
ACC14632.987.1Florida State 906.6
Big Ten14628.7161.0Ohio State 902.5
Big 1210625.4113.4Texas 839.0
American Athletic12462.6118.0Houston 572.7
FBS Independents4450.0471.5Notre Dame 842.4
Conference USA13397.685.0Marshall 485.5
Mid-American12392.277.2Toledo 460.9
Mountain West12388.461.1Boise State 548.8
Sun Belt11351.899.6Arkansas State 471.4

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.