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Which is the best college football conference in 2020?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense success rate · 2020

FBS medianFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanPac-12Big TenSECSun BeltAmerican Athlet…ACCBig 12Conference USAMountain West

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents447.4%7.0%BYU 52.5%
Mid-American845.9%6.5%Western Michigan 51.4%
Pac-12645.6%4.5%Oregon 49.6%
Big Ten1343.8%6.1%Ohio State 50.9%
SEC1443.7%5.7%Alabama 56.1%
Sun Belt1042.1%6.1%Coastal Carolina 50.2%
American Athletic1141.9%7.1%UCF 47.3%
ACC1441.6%3.5%North Carolina 50.5%
Big 121040.9%6.4%Oklahoma 50.5%
Conference USA1140.4%2.9%North Texas 46.6%
Mountain West1139.9%7.2%Air Force 52.2%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.