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Which is the best college football conference in 2018?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense success rate · 2018

FBS medianBig 12SECFBS IndependentsSun BeltBig TenPac-12ACCAmerican Athlet…Mountain WestConference USAMid-American

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big 121046.3%6.1%Oklahoma 55.0%
SEC1445.6%4.9%Alabama 54.7%
FBS Independents644.3%3.6%Army 48.7%
Sun Belt1044.3%2.7%Coastal Carolina 45.6%
Big Ten1444.3%7.9%Wisconsin 51.9%
Pac-121243.1%3.0%Washington State 49.2%
ACC1443.0%6.8%Clemson 49.4%
American Athletic1242.8%4.4%UCF 47.5%
Mountain West1242.0%8.0%Boise State 48.9%
Conference USA1441.4%4.4%North Texas 44.9%
Mid-American1240.4%5.8%Ohio 51.9%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.