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Which is the best college football conference in 2024?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Third down conversion · 2024

FBS medianBig TenSECPac-12Big 12Sun BeltFBS IndependentsACCMountain WestConference USAAmerican Athlet…Mid-American

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big Ten1844.8%5.8%Oregon 50.9%
SEC1644.2%5.7%LSU 50.5%
Pac-12243.3%1.1%Washington State 43.9%
Big 121643.2%2.9%Kansas 53.2%
Sun Belt1441.5%5.8%Troy 52.9%
FBS Independents340.9%3.2%Notre Dame 42.4%
ACC1740.7%6.8%Miami 57.4%
Mountain West1240.6%6.2%Boise State 50.8%
Conference USA1039.5%4.5%Western Kentucky 44.0%
American Athletic1439.4%8.5%Tulane 50.9%
Mid-American1236.8%7.7%Ohio 47.3%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.